An Analysis of Production Factors in Carp Farming in Hungary

Gyalog, Gergő – Berzi-Nagy, László – Tóth, Flórián – Békefi, Emese – Bojtárné Lukácsik, Mónika

Keywords: aquaculture, pond culture, Cobb-Douglas function, water scarcity, labour shortage, Q22

Although Hungarian pond production has long been stagnant, there is a significant fluctuation between years. Moreover, difference in average carp yields of different regions is huge as well. Using econometric tools, the present study aims to identify those production inputs and characteristics of production infrastructure that explain the differences in productivity of carp farms. It was also analyzed whether and to what extent labour shortage and climate-change driven water stress may constrain production in the future. A CobbDouglas production function was parameterized based on data from 180 pond farms: per-hectare carp yield was the dependent variable, while major production inputs (feed, stocking material, labour, water) calculated on a per-hectare basis and infrastructural characteristics (reed coverage and average depth of ponds) were used as explanatory variables. Feed, stocking material, labour and water proved to be statistically significant determinant of carp yields, while pond depth was not significant explanatory variable in the model. Reed coverage occurred with negative and statistically significant coefficient implying that increasing the percentage of reed cover decreases yields. Extrapolation of model results to industry-level revealed that an increase of 100 tonnes in stocking material (1-year-old and 2-year-old age classes) production generates an additional production of 270 tonnes of market size fish in the subsequent year. Contrarily to stockers, model results showed that increase or shrinkage in aquaculture employment would not induce significant changes in industry output, therefore recently experienced reduction in labour supply will not constrain production in the short-term. Concerning the issue of climate change and water scarcity, econometric analysis shows that water stressed periods will not impact carp production if available water for production will not decrease by more 30-50 million m3 per year which number made the difference between dry and rainy years in recent years.

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