Forecasting bankruptcy and success in domestic agriculture

Törzsök, Árpád – Keszthelyi, Szilárd – Kiss, András

Keywords: agricultural commodity production, profitability, bankruptcy prognostication

It is apparent on the basis of numerical modelling that the restructuring of agricultural plants and plant selection does not end in the first year after joining the EU, but in the following one or two years further 3 thousand commodity producing agricultural enterprises will have to end production according to our forecasts. The real losers will be farms keeping fodder consuming animals; probably more than 400 enterprises will cease operating. The future is not too promising for small farms keeping mass fodder consuming animals, but numerous middle and large concerns are bound to survive. Smaller in proportions but a large number of mixed type farms will find themselves in the neighbourhood of bankruptcy, primarily because of the unfavourable profitability of animal keeping. The largest number of bankruptcies both in proportions and absolute numbers occur among the smaller enterprises, therefore the amalgamation of plants will probably continue. At the same time the expected income of about 14 thousand farms is favourable. A most important outcome is that the incomes of not only plant growers but also numerous cattle and sheep farmers as well as that of plantation farmers are encouraging.

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