Structural change constraints on Hungarian agriculture
Udovecz, Gábor
Keywords: structural change, land utilisation, animal husbandry, corn surpluses, logistics
According to the modelling results, production expansion is hardly able to keep up with the growth in domestic purchasing power, due to depressed prices. Higher consumption is being met by imports. Where increased production would be economically justified, various barriers impede it. In animal husbandry, continuation of the current situation is likely, unless there are some definitive changes. Livestock and egg production are stagnating or rather decreasing slightly, with the exception of the sheep population. This is also unfavourable for fodder production. Furthermore, no definitive changes can be expected in grass utilisation. Maintaining the current position in vegetable, fruit and wine production requires effort. The economic situation favours arable land plants, however, a reduction in the sown area of cereals is justified and even so the surplus stocks may cause tension. A reduction of 450-650 thousand hectares of arable land and 700-750 thousand hectares of grassland would be reasonable, within the agricultural land utilisation structure. Alternative utilisation solutions are still needed.
A more favourable situation than that presented by the modelling can only be expected if:
- economically effective, domestic producers prevail on the markets;
- logistical barriers are reduced and averted;
- animal husbandry is supported by capital involvement, better organisation, the moderation of fodder prices, and improved indicators for specific breeding, feeding, etc.;
- marketing and logistics are strengthened in the horticulture sector;
- solutions are found in arable land plant cultivation, for the utilisation of economic opportunities, overcoming the problems of storage and transport, and preparation for the management of stocks;
- sensible utilisation of 1.2-1.4 million hectares of agricultural land is resolved;
- the change-over in 2007, from the current subsidy system, proves favourable, that is, it doesn’t retard the development of desirable, more advantageous processes.
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