Ways to measure the sensitivity and adaptability of agricultural areas

Farkasné Fekete, Mária

Keywords: sustainability, climate change, vulnerability, sensitivity, adaptability

The basic aim of this paper is to contribute to the methodology for examining sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptability. The findings highlight that although European rural areas in general are becoming more and more vulnerable to the various global challenges, the extent of danger varies from region to region. Research findings confirm the hypotheses stated in the 3rd IPCC report, i.e. that at the same level of risk, wealthier countries are less vulnerable because they are more adaptive. Climate change, which affects the European agriculture in both positive and negative ways, modifies current comparative advantages and disadvantages. From an economic standpoint, the risk to Southern and Central Eastern Europe is greater in every scenario. The northern countries may draw certain benefits, as the expected warming enables them to grow a greater variety of crops. On the other hand, the higher probability of intensive farming practices means greater risk to the ecosystem. Everyone is at risk, only the areas and extent of risk is different. This draws attention to the need for joint action. Because in many cases, changes caused by the global challenges to assets and revenues are not in line with how resources are distributed, it is difficult to move as one, based on mutual interests. This could be promoted by aligning lines of research and development with the global challenges and by developing a more targeted aid system. Limited research and other aid funds should be concentrated in fields which are seen to be vulnerable in most or all of the scenarios depicting possible futures. Also, joint action aimed at adaptation is more difficult than mitigation, as its economic benefits are more localised. Research findings also highlight that in addition to the identification of the sources of risk (exposure), assessment and management of the risks, proper communication and involvement of the stakeholders in the entire process are also essential to success.

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