The Export Duration of Hungarian Maize between 1996 and 2015

Fertő, Imre – Szerb, András Bence

Keywords: agriculture, maize export, Hungary, food crisis, duration model, Q11, Q13

Maize is one of the most important agricultural export product in Hungary. The paper investigates the duration of Hungarian maize exports over the period 1996-2015. We employ various discrete time models to explain the drivers of Hungarian maize exports to the world market. Calculations show that Hungarian maize exports are rather short-lived. Our results suggest that standard gravity model variables like market size, level of economic development and distance significantly impact the duration of Hungarian maize exports. In addition, whilst the EU membership decreases, the economic crisis rather increases the probability of exports failures in Hungarian maize exports.

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