Cyclic changes in the purchase price and the purchased quantity of corn and swine

Hegedűsné Baranyai, Nóra

Keywords: purchase price and quantity, corn, swine, cyclic changes, correlation, regression analysis

The economic changes and the country’s accession to the EU have brought about significant changes in the processes of supply and demand concerning agricultural products. The aim of the study was to analyse the monthly changes in the market trends (prices, quantities) in the period right after the change of the political system. One goal was to prove the hypothesis that short term cyclic fluctuations would appear with respect to agricultural prices and quantities. With respect to the purchase price of corn, there were five full cycles between January 1992 and January 2011. The length of the cyclic periods was 3-4 years. In the studied period there were five full cycles with respect to the purchase price of swine as well. The length of the waves varied. The longest cycle with respect to swine prices was the one before the last, with its 3.5 years of length. The analysis especially looked at the role and explanation of factors affecting the trends reflected in the prices and quantities of the studied goods. It was concluded that the relationship between price and quantity of corn was moderately close (R=0.57). Furthermore, quantity responded to the price change 17 months later. A delayed regression analysis of the prices and quantities of swine sold found that the quantity responded to the price change 21 months later. The price of corn had a strong effect on the price of swine during the studied period (R=0.81). The studies found that changes to the price of corn occurred twelve months before the changes to the price of swine.

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