Application of decision support methods in preparation for a Hungarian bio-fuel program

Under current market circumstances and those predictable in the near future, further increasing agricultural production seems to be rather groundless. By utilising agro-ecological conditions more efficiently, one eighth of Hungary’s gasoline demand could be satisfied from maize production, without considerably decreasing current agricultural production for human and animal consumption. For realisation of biofuel programmes a relatively stable socio-economic environment is essential. There is considerable pressure on government from different stakeholders to shift the risks of large-scale investments to the state budget. In the long-run, under the conditions of a liberalised world market the feasibility of biofuel-programmes based on European raw materials, are highly questionable. To build up “shock-resistant” projects, well-founded, simulation-based risk analysis is essential.